Poe Chromatic Chance

Chance

http://siveran.github.io/calc.html
Just enter the number of sockets on an item, the item's stat requirements, and your desired colors, then see how expensive and unreasonable your dreams are!
Since I couldn't find a fully featured correct calculator for chromatic crafting, I tried my hand at one. This supports partial coloring (i.e. wanting 5R on a 6 socket, without caring about the last color) and all the Vorici recipes.
Fun things to try: 6B on a Vaal Axe (158 str / 76 dex), 6G on a Saintly Chainmail (99 str / 115 int).
Enjoy! Tell me if you find any bugs.
CHANGES:
-October 17-
Added standard deviation column for you statistics buffs. Removed useless Vorici Level column.
-October 18-
Chromatic bonus update! Now the basic chromatic crafting chance is more accurate. Before, it didn't take into account that you can't roll the same colors twice. Now it does. This has a very minor effect on zero-stat, two-stat, three-stat items; it has a very large effect on single-stat items. Also includes an extra column for average number of tries to get a success, and a row for the drop rate. Made minor style changes.
-October 19-
Sortable columns! Better number display! Best craft option highlights! More detailed column titles!
-October 27-
Changed the formula. After extensive testing, the chance to get off-colors seems to be based on ilevel! So, right now I use X = 7 + ilevel / 7. It could be closer to X = 8 + ilevel / 9 or X = 6 + ilevel / 5 or anything else, who knows! I can't determine it with high reliability with only 2201 items worth of data; it's very difficult to determine 2 variables. However, gathering items AND doing the testing on them is time-consuming. I need your help.
-October 30-
Slightly changed the formula to X = 2 * sqrt(ilevel) based on 3k+ new items worth of crowdsourced data. Thanks to those who contributed!
-October 31-
Reverted the formula to X = 7 + ilevel / 7, based on hundreds of chromatics of crowdsourced data on ilevel 3 things. Sigh.
How to gather item data:
NEW DATA GATHERING METHOD:
1) Download ClipCube. Run it. Go to preferences (Ctrl+P) and tell it to keep as many items as possible.
2) Visit Tarkleigh, Nessa, Greust, Yeena, Hargan, and Clarissa, in any difficulty. Hover your cursor over every socketed item they have, pressing Ctrl+C over each. ClipCube should record them all. Alternatively, pick up and Ctrl+C every socketed item that drops in an area. Repeat for as long as you like/have patience.
3) In ClipCube, hit Ctrl+E and export as HTML.
4) Make a bookmark with the URL of

javascript:(function(){var%20script=document.createElement('script');script.type='text/javascript';script.src='http://siveran.github.io/poeclipcubeparser.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(script);})();

5) Click the bookmarklet while on ClipCube's exported HTML. This will parse every complete item into usable data, and prompt you to hit ctrl+C to copy it all.
6) Pastebin it, link it as a reply to this.
Thanks!
Last edited by Siveran on Oct 31, 2014, 6:36:53 AM
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:07:08 PM
If it is all accurate, very neat calc :).
ign KlearSpeed
1.3 Torment - Scion Kinetic Build Guide (HC Viable)
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1146976
Posted by
iMbaQ
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:11:21 PM
highly doubt that that tool is accurate, i've seen several 6 off color 6s chests.
and the chance for that is like 1:1million? k.
Last edited by Therealshotzz on Oct 17, 2014, 7:16:51 PM
Posted by
Therealshotzz
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:16:35 PM
'
highly doubt that that tool is accurate, i've seen several 6 off color 6s chests.
and the chance for that is like 1:1million? k.

6 off isn't that bad, if it's a mix of 2 off colors. The chance of getting a 6-off on a pure str item is the chance of getting 6G + chance of getting 5G1B + chance of getting 4G2B, etc. The chance ends up being one in several thousand, for middling requirements.
Getting 6 of a single off-color for a high requirement item is 1:millions. At least according to the formula by Lawphil, which has decent data behind it.
If you'd like to spend tons of chromes on a 6s, recording all the results, that would help a lot to confirm that the formula hasn't changed. Or donate tons of chromes to me, so I can do it. I'm poor :(
Edit: Also, I don't believe vaal orbs respect the stat requirements at all when they randomize colors. All the 6-off things I see on poe.trade are corrupted.
Last edited by Siveran on Oct 17, 2014, 7:32:34 PM
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:27:53 PM
759.4 Chromatic Orbs to GGGBBR a Shavronne's Wrappings...yikes. I guess that's 'only' 4ex, which could be worse.
On a side note, I got a Rainbowstride to RRGG within about a few dozen manual chroms (not on purpose, but I kept it at that color since it seemed particular rare), then threw a Vaal at it, and got +1 gems (again, not on purpose -- I was actually trying for white slot corruption). Makes me wonder how much luck I used up on that day.
Last edited by HoosTrax on Oct 17, 2014, 7:57:05 PM
Posted by
HoosTrax
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:50:43 PM
'
759.4 Chromatic Orbs to GGGBBR a Shavronne's Wrappings...yikes. I guess that's 'only' 4ex, which could be worse.
Well, now at least you know what Vorici recipe to use, to minimize the pain! Also, aren't chromes more like 400:1ex? That would only be 2 ex.
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:58:39 PM
'
'
759.4 Chromatic Orbs to GGGBBR a Shavronne's Wrappings...yikes. I guess that's 'only' 4ex, which could be worse.
Well, now at least you know what Vorici recipe to use, to minimize the pain! Also, aren't chromes more like 400:1ex? That would only be 2 ex.

In Standard, the rate is 200 chroms to 1 ex.
Edit: poeex.info is completely out of whack as far as the actual exchange rate for the chroms for some reason. Their posted rates for fuses, jewelers, alts, etc are all completely off base as well. Now I know why I occasionally see people trying to buy fuses for 63:1, instead of 40:1.
Last edited by HoosTrax on Oct 17, 2014, 8:04:59 PM
Posted by
HoosTrax
on Oct 17, 2014, 7:59:26 PM
'
'
'
759.4 Chromatic Orbs to GGGBBR a Shavronne's Wrappings...yikes. I guess that's 'only' 4ex, which could be worse.
Well, now at least you know what Vorici recipe to use, to minimize the pain! Also, aren't chromes more like 400:1ex? That would only be 2 ex.

In Standard, the rate is 200 chroms to 1 ex.
Edit: poeex.info is completely out of whack as far as the actual exchange rate for the chroms for some reason
Oh, I play Rampage and Beyond where it's around 400:1ex. Source.
I don't trust poeex anymore at all. When chaos went from 40:1ex to 50:1ex in Rampage, their ratio went from 38:1ex to 26:1ex.
Anyway, good luck crafting!
Last edited by Siveran on Oct 17, 2014, 8:18:46 PM
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 17, 2014, 8:12:03 PM
Last league i have tried to color Maligaro's into BBRG i got every possible combination including BBBB and RRRR but the needed one. Ended up buying the BBRG.
When Vorichi got implemented i thought my dream came true. But when i tried to hit RRBG on armor/es helm i had to use a hundred and a half chromes...A HUNDRED AND A HALF TO GET ONE OFF COLOR. Again there were BBBG RRRG GGGR BBBG GGBB GGRR and i think i hit every possible combination but the needed one. Been using an off color recipe (4 chromes).
If this is a dream - it is surely a nightmare !!
All these statistics are absolutely pointless unless we are speaking of millions of millions of attempts. As long as statistics are not calculated separately for each person we are going to get into an interesting situation when one guy gets three six links in a thousand of fuses and another one cant make one in two years of playing and more than seven thousands of fuses used.
Posted by
Teplokot
on Oct 17, 2014, 8:48:13 PM
'
Last league i have tried to color Maligaro's into BBRG i got every possible combination including BBBB and RRRR but the needed one. Ended up buying the BBRG.
When Vorichi got implemented i thought my dream came true. But when i tried to hit RRBG on armor/es helm i had to use a hundred and a half chromes...A HUNDRED AND A HALF TO GET ONE OFF COLOR. Again there were BBBG RRRG GGGR BBBG GGBB GGRR and i think i hit every possible combination but the needed one. Been using an off color recipe (4 chromes).
If this is a dream - it is surely a nightmare !!
All these statistics are absolutely pointless unless we are speaking of millions of millions of attempts. As long as statistics are not calculated separately for each person we are going to get into an interesting situation when one guy gets three six links in a thousand of fuses and another one cant make one in two years of playing and more than seven thousands of fuses used.
I replaced the Vorici Level column with a standard deviation column, so now you can at least know roughly how lucky (or unlucky, in your case) you are!
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 17, 2014, 11:57:12 PM
Recipe

Good suggestions! I disagree, though. I initially named it PoE Chromatic Calculator (if you see the source, that's the project name), but there are a lot of chromatic calculators, and many of those are named something similar to 'PoE Chromatic Calculator'. I wanted to be immediately clear about what was different about my calculator. Example of the vendor recipe system The vendor recipe system allows the player to sell items to any town vendor in exchange for a multitude of currency items and equipment. Each recipe requires semi-specific items or combinations of items be put into the sell window at the same time, and the outcome will change based on any recipes that have been matched. Unless noted otherwise, each item may. YouTube: Facebook: Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/mbX. PoE Orb of Chance is a PoE currency item which will be utilized to make an exclusive Item employing an Orb of Chance. Applied to transmute a Normal high-quality item into a Random high-quality item. PoE Orbs Trade / Exchange Rates Updated for Patch 3.10. The tables below display the current exchange rates of Chaos Orbs and Exalted Orbs in PoE. This two type of Orbs are the main PoE currency items in terms of trading, and we have decided to limit our list to them.

Poe
Do you have one for fusing/links?
Posted by
delray
on Oct 18, 2014, 11:05:41 AM
'Metas rotate all the time, eventually the developers will buff melee'
PoE 2013-2018
Posted by
Wazz72
on Oct 18, 2014, 11:40:28 AM
great tool! I guess I got lucky as hell @ 3000..your calc says 19,000 chroms
What happened to the 'Don't tread on me' Americans?
It’s easier to fool the masses than to convince them that they are being fooled. -Mark Twain
Give a fish they'll steal a whale. Teach to fish and they'll eat forever.
Posted by
Aim_Deep
on Oct 18, 2014, 11:42:05 AM
'
Do you have one for fusing/links?
No, and I wouldn't be able to make one without knowing the chances for links. Unless someone would like to donate thousands to me so I can make a more accurate approximation (:D?), just estimate the chance to 6L at around 1 in 1000, and the chance to 5L at around 1 in 100 (1 in 75 if it's a 6s). Those numbers are probably off by +/-30%, but they're decent guesses from my experience. Those numbers can probably be at least halved if you're using max quality, based on this.
Sockets are easier. According to this cool person (who is also providing help on my calculator) it takes an average of 221.5 jews to 6s. 5s is about 5 times more likely, so about 45 jews to 5s.
To answer other questions:
Should you quality while using jeweller's? No, unless it's on a white (and maybe blue armor). But why would you try to 6s a white?
Should you quality while using fusings on armor? Yes.
Should you quality while using fusings on white and magic weapons? Yes.
Should you quality while using fusings on rare and unique weapons? Maybe, it's close.
If you want a 5L, should you 5s or 6s it first? It's close. 5s is technically slightly cheaper, but you lose a decent chance to get a 6L.
Last edited by Siveran on Oct 18, 2014, 8:49:41 PM
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 18, 2014, 8:48:32 PM
I updated it. Your dreams are slightly less unreasonable than previously thought, ESPECIALLY if your dreams involved prophecy wands.
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 19, 2014, 2:42:13 AM
Well done, I have a few comments on the general design of the page though.
What does Cost Per Try and Average Cost mean? Is it in Chromatics, Chaos, Euros, Dollars?
I would reword those to Chromatics Per Try and Average Amount of Chromatics or something similar.
Vorici Chromatic Calculator is an odd title. I would use something like:
Chromatic Calculator
Incl. Vorici's Crafting Bench.
Posted by
Illviljan
on Oct 19, 2014, 10:56:35 AM
'
Well done, I have a few comments on the general design of the page though.
What does Cost Per Try and Average Cost mean? Is it in Chromatics, Chaos, Euros, Dollars?
I would reword those to Chromatics Per Try and Average Amount of Chromatics or something similar.
Vorici Chromatic Calculator is an odd title. I would use something like:
Chromatic Calculator
Incl. Vorici's Crafting Bench.
Good suggestions! I disagree, though. I initially named it PoE Chromatic Calculator (if you see the source, that's the project name), but there are a lot of chromatic calculators, and many of those are named something similar to 'PoEChromaticCalculator'. I wanted to be immediately clear about what was different about my calculator. I would have also put 'with support for partially colored items' as the subtitle, if it wasn't a mouthful. There's no reason to waste valuable title words on 'Path of Exile' since anyone finding this calculator will already know or will not care.
As for the titles of columns, 'Chromatics' is a lot of characters :( Your suggested column titles would be the longest, and wouldn't fit on one row for many screens. I could use 'Chromes', but I feel like that would confuse newer characters. For my first few days of PoE, I thought there was a separate 'Chrome Orb'.
Maybe I could use 'Chroms' or an icon? It'd be so much easier if 'c' wasn't taken up by filthy chaos orbs, I could just do '123c'.
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 19, 2014, 8:43:30 PM
Updated! Changes can be read in initial post and at https://github.com/Siveran/siveran.github.io/commits/master.
I think I'm done, unless someone finds a bug. Enjoy!
Posted by
Siveran
on Oct 20, 2014, 4:00:05 AM
The tool seems to be a little off unless this can be explained. To better explain what I have found I'll just use an example. When looking at a 4 socket item with a stat requirement your tool will calculate what is the best vorici craft to use; however, if I then add in the crafted mod manually the calculated results for the 3 socket does not match the calculated results for 4 socket with 1 color guaranteed.
Here is the specific values I used:
4 socket item requiring 70 dex and desired colors are RRGB
4 socket with Vorici craft of 1R is and avg cost of 67.2 chroms
If I then input the item as a 3 socket requiring 70 dex with desired colors of RGB the average chance to get the color combination is 12.7. This ends up equaling 50.8 chroms.
Following the Data which the calculator was based on, each socket is rolled independently of each other. so a 4 socket RRGB 1R guaranteed Vorichi craft should equal a 3 socket RGB craft (accounting for Vorichi craft cost) on an item with equal stat requirements.
Unless I am missing something these calculations on your program seem a little off.
Posted by
Aaberd
on Oct 24, 2014, 12:36:00 PM
'
highly doubt that that tool is accurate, i've seen several 6 off color 6s chests.
and the chance for that is like 1:1million? k.

even if accurate, its a waste of resources.
chromatics
lets say i want a gloves 4 socket with RGBB and its currently RRRR. The str is 150 and int 40.
According to the tool, I would have 68% chance after 160+ attempts.
people sell chroms for fusings (5 chrom: 1 fusing) on poe.trade
160/5=32 fusings
2:1 fusing to chaos orb ratio average
32/=16 chaos orbs
16 choas orbs for a 68% chance at RGBB
outright buy it
Search poe.trade for RGBB 4 socket min gloves --> anywhere from 1 chaos orb to 10 depending on the stats you want. 100% chance to get the socket colors you want.
conclusion
it is cheaper to just outright but an item that has the socket colors you want.
theory-shadow: http://tinyurl.com/l3nu76x | puncture
Last edited by mokaiba on Oct 24, 2014, 12:51:28 PM
Posted by
mokaiba
on Oct 24, 2014, 12:46:27 PM

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